Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Cell phones to Flex Muscles as Top Internet Gateway?

I've been wondering about how cell phone internet access will change how all of us use the internet from our PCs. In the U.S., most of us think of our computers as our internet gateway. But there are far more cell phones sold every year than PCs. Over a billion cell phones worldwide in 2006 vs. fewer than a quarter of that number of PCs. And in developing countries, such as India and China, that ratio is far higher. This isn't just a developing country question, however. I did some government agency work recently to bring light to how citizens use services--and what drives satisfaction. (Yes, some bureaucrats think about this....) When you get out and talk to typical consumers of government services...when you hear "oh yeah, I have a PC, but it's broken," it becomes clear that phone-based web access could go from tail to dog. For basic communications (text email, SMS, chat), phones can already be full citizens. (Have you seen how fast some folks type on 9-key?) But what about for research and what we think of as "web pages." How will that change? Assuming the limping dog phone-based internet performance improves, what about screen size? Today, you design for a reasonable PC screen and then try to be sure the experience is acceptable on a handset. Will that switch? Will we all have beautiful 1200 x 1400 pixel flatscreen monitors and find that all our favorite pages are optimized to lower res handsets? The big players will optimize for both, but will smaller players have the time or inclination?

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